Eastern Conference Playoff Probabilities

2016 playoffs.gifAs some of you may know, I love statistics.  Although I could easily just wait 2 days to see what the playoff match-ups will be in the Eastern Conference, I wanted to do a little probability calculating to see what the probability was of certain teams making the playoffs, and what match-ups are most likely to see.

As of right now, the Panthers and Lightning have clinched 1st and 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, respectively, and the Capitals and Penguins have clinched 1st and 2nd place in the Metropolitan Division, respectively.  Although both of the Rangers and Islanders have at least solidified a playoff spot, where they place is not yet determined.

The 3 remaining teams in playoff contention are the Bruins, Red Wings, and Flyers.  Here are the probabilities of each of these teams making the playoffs:

P(Bruins making playoffs) = 60.6%

P(Red Wings making playoffs) = 84.7%

P(Flyers making playoffs) = 54.6%

If the Bruins make the playoffs, they could finish as a 3rd seed in the Atlantic, as the 2nd wild card team, or they could miss the playoffs.  It is slightly more likely that if the Bruins do make the playoffs, they will end up as a wild card.  Here are the probabilities that they place 3rd in the Atlantic, end up in the 2nd wild card spot, and miss the playoffs:

P(Bruins 3rd in Atlantic) = 25%

P(Bruins 2nd wild card) = 35.6%

P(Bruins miss playoffs) = 39.4%

If the Red Wings make the playoffs, they could also finish as a 3rd seed in the Atlantic Division, as the 2nd wild card team, or they could miss the playoffs.  If the Red Wings do make the playoffs, it is far more likely that they would place 3rd in their division as opposed to being the 2nd wild card, as represented by the following probabilities:

P(Red Wings 3rd in Atlantic) = 75%

P(Red Wings 2nd wild card) = 9.7%

P(Red Wings miss playoffs) = 15.3%

If the Flyers make the playoffs, they cannot finish any higher than the 2nd wild card spot, and so their probabilities of finishing either as a 2nd wild card or out of the playoffs is:

P(Flyers 2nd wild card) = 54.6%

P(Flyers miss playoffs) = 45.4%

As you may recall, both the Islanders and Rangers have clinched a playoff birth, however, where they finish in the standings is not yet determined.  One of these teams will finish 3rd in the division and play the Penguins in the first round.  The other team will finish as the 1st wild card, and will hop over to the Atlantic Division to play Florida in the first round.  As of today, the most likely opponent for the Penguins is the Islanders, as seen in the probabilities below:

P(Rangers 3rd in Metropolitan) = 31.9%

P(Rangers 1st wild card) = 68.1%

P(Islanders 3rd in Metropolitan) = 68.1%

P(Islanders 1st wild card) = 31.9%

Based on all of this information, here are all of the possible playoff match-ups from most likely to least likely, along with their probabilities:

There is a 32.4% chance that the playoff match-ups are:

WSH v. BOS

PIT v. NYI

FLA v. NYR

TBL v. DET

There is a 25% chance that the playoff match-ups are:

WSH v. PHI

PIT v. NYI

FLA v. NYR

TBL v. DET

There is a 14.4% chance that the playoff match-ups are:

WSH v. PHI

PIT v. NYR

FLA v. NYI

TBL v. DET

There is a 11.6% chance that the playoff match-ups are:

WSH v. PHI

PIT v. NYR

FLA v. NYI

TBL v. BOS

There is a 6.9% chance that the playoff match-ups are:

WSH v. DET

PIT v. NYI

FLA v. NYR

TBL v. BOS

There is a 3.7% chance that the playoff match-ups are:

WSH v. PHI

PIT v. NYI

FLA v. NYR

TBL v. BOS

There is a 3.2% chance that the playoff match-ups are:

WSH v. BOS

PIT v. NYR

FLA v. NYI

TBL v. DET

There is a 2.8% chance that the playoff match-ups are:

WSH v. DET

PIT v. NYR

FLA v. NYI

TBL v. BOS

I would like to note that I calculated all of these probabilities myself.  I only say that because I am sure I made a few errors somewhere in my calculations, but I can guarantee that these probabilities are generally correct (and hopefully most are 100% accurate).

Now, we wait 2 days and see what happens….

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Eastern Conference Playoff Probabilities

Just Maybe, This Team is For Real

kuhn and cullenAs the calendar changed from February to March, the Penguins were clinging onto the last wild card spot in the playoff race.  To top it off, they had a 16 game month ahead of them, 12 games being against division opponents.  It looked like it was going to be a tough hill to climb for the Penguins.

In February, the Penguins played some tremendous hockey games, and some not so tremendous hockey games.  They failed to produce more than 2 wins in a row.  They were not a bad hockey team by any means, but they were absolutely inconsistent.

Going into the month of March with an inconsistent team was a scary thought, also considering the standings.  The Islanders, Rangers, and even Flyers could have all jumped on the Penguins and buried them in the standings, potentially even right out of the playoffs.

But the Penguins have turned the tables.

The Penguins are 8 games into a 9 game streak all against the Metropolitan Division.  They are 7-1 in those 8 games, and have also won 6 games straight, the longest such win streak under Mike Sullivan.  Oh, and 5 of these games are without Evgeni Malkin, but the Pens are 5-0 in those games.

During this stretch the Penguins have been defying the odds.

They beat the mighty New York Rangers in New York, against the same goalie that has been giving them fits in the regular season and playoffs the past few years: Henrik Lundqvist.  Not only that, but the Penguins scored 4 on Lundqvist and added an empty net goal.

They beat the Flyers this Saturday in absolute dominant fashion.  The Flyers did strike first, but the Penguins dominated the game and won 4-1, while only allowing 17 shots on goal, which is the Flyers’ season low.  This is a team the Penguins have not beat, regardless of venue, in the past 2 years.  This year, the Penguins are 2-0 against them.

They beat the best team in the NHL yesterday.  Not only did the Penguins beat the Capitals, they controlled the game and won in dominant fashion, 6-2, allowing the Capitals only 18 shots.  The Capitals had not allowed 6 goals this season until last night.

Heck, the Metropolitan Division as a whole has given the Penguins fits in recent years.  Just last year, the Penguins had a 9-17-4 record.  This year, since Sullivan took over behind the bench, the Penguins are an incredible 14-5-1 (Johnston’s Penguins were 1-2-1 against division foes)

Maybe, just maybe, this team is for real.

So, what can the Penguins attribute to this sudden resurgence?

Mike Sullivan has turned this team around.  He has given them an identity, and the players are embracing it.  Since Sullivan took over the Penguins are 3rd in the NHL in goals for (135), 4th in goal differential (+25), 2nd in high danger scoring chances for percentage, (56.0%), 1st in shots for/60 minutes (33.9), 8th in shots against/60 minutes (28.5), and they lead the NHL in Corsi for percentage at 54.7%, which essentially indicates possession.  That being said, even coming from a stats guy, the stats alone do not tell the tale of Sullivan.

To start off, he has made the players more disciplined.  The story that stands out to me is the one of Kris Letang.  The Penguins just lost a game at home against the Lightning on February 20th, 4-2, in which Letang took 3 penalties, 2 of them in the 3rd period, and most of them were just bad penalties to take.

After the plane arrived in Buffalo, where the Penguins would play the day after, Sullivan kept Letang on the plane and had a chat with him.  They both agreed that Letang is at his best when he plays with passion, but is able to keep disciplined.  He responded by turning his penalties into points, literally.  He turned 3 penalties into 3 points (3A), which helped the Penguins defeat the Sabres 4-3.  Since then, Letang has been noticeably more disciplined on the ice, and his play has been the best it has been all year.

Look back at the Penguins vs. Flyers game this past Saturday.  The Penguins did not stoop down to the level that Philadelphia likes to play at.  I believe this is the main reason they have struggled against the Flyers in the past years, because the Penguins were undisciplined, played into the Flyers game, took bad penalties, and the Flyers made them pay.  However, in this 4-1 dominant win by the Pens, they maintained their cool and did not let the Flyers so much as budge them, and made it hurt where it hurts the most: the scoreboard.

Another huge reason for the Penguins recent success is scoring depth.  The Penguins entered the season looking like it would be one of the best teams in the NHL given its apparent forward depth, but this was entirely untrue.  These “depth guys” were not scoring, and neither was the whole team.

Now, the team does not have to rely on Crosby, Kessel, Malkin, and Letang to win hockey games, even though Sid is on a roll with an 11 game point streak.  Last night, the line of Rust, Kuhnhackl, and Cullen had 7 points for crying out loud!  If the Penguins want to make a legitimate run in the playoffs, they need the depth guys to continue producing.  It has something they have been lacking since the 2009 Stanley Cup year.

Also, something that many of us did not see coming, is that the defensive corps is playing some kind of hockey.  2 of the Penguins 6 goals yesterday came from defensemen, including one from Schultz who has been tremendous since he has arrived in Pittsburgh, which was his first as a Penguin.

But it isn’t just about offense.  The Penguins allowed just 35 shots in the last 2 games combined, and seem to finally be clicking on all cylinders.  Dumoulin and Daley has been working as a tremendous 2nd pair, and Cole and Schultz have found some tremendous chemistry as a 3rd defensive pair…AND the Penguins still have Pouliot and Lovejoy scratched!

I’ve said it before: all of these division games could make or break the Penguins season.  Well, the Penguins currently find themselves in 2nd place in the Metropolitan Division, and they do not seem to be slowing down any time soon.  This is a hockey team that shouldn’t be messed with.

Dare I say this team is reminding me more and more of 2009?

 

Just Maybe, This Team is For Real

Believe

Just 2 nights ago, the Philadelphia Flyers marched into Pittsburgh with a 13-2-1 record at Consol Energy Center.  Heck, the Philadelphia Flyers Twitter account tweeted this photo below with the caption: “Home sweet (second) home #PHIvsPIT”

And unfortunately, it has been their second home.  The Penguins haven’t beat Philadelphia, regardless of venue, since October 17, 2013 going into this game.  Last time the Penguins won at Consol Energy Center against Philadelphia was March 24th, 2013 in a game that took OT to decide.  Tyler Kennedy had the game-winner in OT.

After the 1st period, the Penguins gave up 2 power play goals to Brayden Schenn and Jake Voracek, and were trailing 2-0 after the first.

Given the history of these 2 teams at Consol, I along with many other fans I would assume, thought this game was over and done.  I was wrong.

The Penguins battled back in the 2nd, and went into the 2nd intermission up 3-2, scoring 2 power play goals from Daley and Kessel, and adding 1 more from Crosby that was a ridiculous shot at a ridiculous angle.  Kessel netted another goal in the 3rd to make it 4-2.  Giroux did respond for the Flyers, but the Penguins held on and won 4-3.

This was not only a great come from behind win, but an absolute HUGE 2 points against a Flyers team that is chasing them in the standings.

This afternoon, the Penguins took on the Canucks despite the snowy conditions here in Pittsburgh.  Once again, the Penguins found themselves down 2-0 at the intermission on 2 goals by Canucks’ forward Jannik Hansen, who had a terrific game, and looked like one of the fastest forwards in the league.

Evgeni Malkin scored a 5 on 3 power play goal in the 2nd period to cut the lead in half, but the Penguins were still trailing 2-1 going into the 3rd.

A few minutes into the 3rd period, Canucks’ forward Bo Horvat fired a shot top corner on Fleury, using Letang as a screen, and gave the Canucks a 3-1 lead with only 14 minutes remaining in the game.  Once again, it did not look so good for the Penguins.

Then, just a minute later, Evgeni Malkin was at it again.  He carried the puck into the slot and was skating right to left.  He tried to get Miller off of his angle, but Miller never gave Malkin a good chance to shoot.  Malkin ended up carrying the puck behind the net, but was able to throw the puck to the front.  Luckily for Malkin, the puck went right off of a Canuck stick and into the net.  It was 3-2 now, and the Penguins had life.

Not much longer the Penguins tied the game 3-3.  Who scored?  Well, who else???

Malkin notched his 10th career hat trick on this goal, and single-handedly brought the Penguins back in this game.  What a great game for Geno.

With only 7 minutes to go, Bryan Rust notched his 2nd of the season, and his 1st since returning from injury, and what a big goal it was.  Kuhnhackl got his first NHL point on the assist.  Although Rust scores the goal, it never would have happened without Eric Fehr.  Fehr screened Miller and never allowed Miller to see the sneaky quick shot that Rust took.  It wasn’t a hard shot, but because Miller never saw it, he did not fall into the butterfly, and the puck went 5-hole and gave the Penguins the lead.

Crosby then scored on an empty net, which ended up being a huge empty net goal.  That being said, Hagelin could have easily scored on the empty net, as he was in a 2 on 1 with Sid going towards an open net, but he passed it and Sid buried it.  Classy play from Hagelin, who has yet to score as a Penguin.  Although, he has been getting his chances and has been playing very well.  I love how much he can create with his speed.

Jannik Hansen scored with 16 seconds remaining to cap a hat trick of his own, but it wasn’t enough to tie the game, and the Penguins held on and won 5-4.

I want to take you back in time for a second…

Can you all remember earlier in the year, when the Penguins could not come backto win games under Johnston?  It seemed, at least to me, that if the other team scored the first goal, the game was over.  The Penguins just could not come back in games.

Now, that is different.

The Penguins just overcame back-to-back 2 goal deficits in the first period.  Although I wish the Penguins wouldn’t continue to give up the first 2 goals in games, it is just visible that this team believes in itself and that they believe in their coach.

Their power play is clicking, their offense is clicking…

They are starting to play Penguins hockey.

So yeah, their record under Sullivan isn’t great yet, but I can tell you from watching the Penguins recently, they are playing with some desire.  They want to win.  They believe that they can win.  I believe they can win.  And you should too.

I feel a win streak coming on…

 

Believe